Calendar Effects

The time of year affects human activities and moods, both through natural variations in the environment and through artificial customs and laws. Do such calendar effects systematically and significantly influence investor/trader attention and mood, and thereby equity prices? These blog entries relate to calendar effects in the stock market.

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Stock Market and the Super Bowl

Investor mood may affect financial markets. Sports may affect investor mood. The biggest mood-mover among sporting events in the U.S. is likely the National Football League’s Super Bowl. Is the week before the Super Bowl especially distracting and anxiety-producing? Is the week after the Super Bowl focusing and anxiety-relieving? Presumably, post-game elation and depression cancel between respective fan bases. Using past Super Bowl dates since inception and daily/weekly S&P 500 Index data for 1967 through 2014 (48 events), we find that: Keep Reading

Style Performance by Calendar Month

The Trading Calendar presents full-year and monthly cumulative performance profiles for the overall stock market (S&P 500 Index) based on its average daily behavior since 1950. How much do the corresponding monthly behaviors of the various size and value/growth styles deviate from an overall equity market profile? To investigate, we consider the the following six exchange-traded funds (ETF) that cut across capitalization (large, medium and small) and value versus growth:

iShares Russell 1000 Value Index (IWD) – large capitalization value stocks.
iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index (IWF) – large capitalization growth stocks.
iShares Russell Midcap Value Index (IWS) – mid-capitalization value stocks.
iShares Russell Midcap Growth Index (IWP) – mid-capitalization growth stocks.
iShares Russell 2000 Value Index (IWN) – small capitalization value stocks.
iShares Russell 2000 Growth Index (IWO) – small capitalization growth stocks.

Using monthly dividend-adjusted closing prices for the style ETFs and S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) over the period August 2001 through December 2014 (161 months, limited by data for IWS/IWP), we find that: Keep Reading

Sector Performance by Calendar Month

The Trading Calendar presents full-year and monthly cumulative performance profiles for the overall stock market (S&P 500 Index) based on its average daily behavior since 1950. How much do the corresponding monthly behaviors of the various stock market sectors deviate from an overall market profile? To investigate, we consider the nine sectors defined by the Select Sector Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR), all of which have trading data back to December 1998:

Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB)
Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI)
Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP)
Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU)
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV)
Consumer Discretionary Select SPDR (XLY)

Using monthly adjusted closing prices for these exchange traded funds (ETF) since inception, along with contemporaneous data for Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPY) as a benchmark, for December 1998 through December 2014 (193 months), we find that: Keep Reading

Asset Class ETF Momentum Winner Performance by Calendar Month

A subscriber asked how the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” performs by calendar month. To investigate, we return to the following eight asset class exchange-traded funds (ETF), plus cash:

PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
3-month Treasury bills (Cash)

We allocate all funds at the end of each month to the asset class ETF or cash with the highest total return over the past five months (5-1). Using monthly adjusted closing prices for the asset class proxies and the yield for Cash over the period July 2002 through December 2014 (150 months), we find that: Keep Reading

Stock Market Performance by Intra-year Phase

The full-year Trading Calendar suggests that the U.S. stock market may have three phases over the calendar year, corresponding roughly to calendar year trading days 1-84 (January-April), 85-210 (May-October) and 211-252 (November-December). What are typical stock market returns and return variabilities for these phases? Using daily S&P 500 Index closing levels during 1950 through 2014 (65 years), we find that: Keep Reading

Models, Trading Calendar and Momentum Strategy Updates

We have updated the S&P 500 Market Models summary as follows:

  • Extended Market Models regressions/rolled projections by one month based on data available through December 2014.
  • Updated Market Models backtest charts and the market valuation metrics map based on data available through December 2014.

We have updated the Trading Calendar to incorporate data for December 2014.

We have updated the the monthly asset class momentum winners and associated performance data at Momentum Strategy.

Stock Returns Around New Year’s Day

Does the New Year’s Day holiday, a time of replanning and income tax positioning, systematically affect investors in a way that translates into U.S. stock market returns? To investigate, we analyze the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index during the five trading days before and the five trading days after the holiday. Using daily closing levels of the S&P 500 Index around New Year’s Day for 1951-2014 (64 observations), we find that: Keep Reading

Stock Returns Around Christmas

Does the Christmas holiday, a time of putative good will toward all, give U.S. stock investors a sense of optimism that translates into stock returns? To investigate, we analyze the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index during the five trading days before and the five trading days after the holiday. Using daily closing levels of the S&P 500 index for 1950-2013 (64 events), we find that: Keep Reading

Monthly Mutual Fund Flow Pattern as Driver of TOTM Effect

Do predictable monthly outflows from and inflows to mutual funds drive the Turn-of-the-Month (TOTM) effect, a concentration of positive stock market returns around the turns of calendar months? In their November 2014 paper entitled “Dash for Cash: Month-End Liquidity Needs and the Predictability of Stock Returns”, Kalle Rinne, Matti Suominen and Lauri Vaittinen explore TOTM with focus on the effects of: (1) month-end flows from mutual funds to retirees and dividend-collecting investors; and, (2) beginning-of-month flows from working investors to mutual funds. To account for trade settlement rules, funds must sell stocks at least three trading days before the end of the month to raise cash for expected month-end outflows. The authors therefore define a TOTM interval from three trading days before through three trading days after the last trading day of the month. They also consider intervals of five trading days before TOTM to measure the effect of fund selling and five trading days after TOTM  to measure reversion from fund buying. Using daily value-weighted, (mostly) total return stock market indexes for the U.S. since 1926 and for 24 other developed markets as available during January 1980 through January 2014, and data for individual U.S. stocks and mutual funds during January 1980 through December 2013, they find that: Keep Reading

VXX and XIV Returns by Day of the Week

Do the returns of iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-term Futures ETN (VXX) and VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-term ETN (XIV) vary systematically across days of the week? To investigate we calculate returns by day of the week for:

  1. VXX over its available sample period.
  2. VXX over its available sample period excluding the day before and the day after holidays (to remove any distorting effects of expected but unusual market closures).
  3. XIV over its available sample period.
  4. VXX over the available sample period of XIV.

Using daily close-to-close returns for VXX during February 2009 through November 2014 and for XIV during December 2010 through November 2014, we find that: Keep Reading

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