Investing Research Articles

...evidence suggests that investors may be able to enhance exploitation of downside momentum by focusing on stocks with high idiosyncratic (non-beta) volatility.

Since 7/9/09, Christophe Faugère has been publishing (almost) daily “Market Estimates” of the value of the S&P 500 Index based on Required Yield Theory (RYT). RYT views investors as: (1) requiring that U.S. stocks and...

...evidence from small samples indicates that housing price adjusted for inflation, disposable income and GDP reverts to trend (and that adjusted U.S. housing price is currently low).

...experimental evidence indicates that people, whether expert in finance or not, can quickly learn to distinguish financial markets time series from randomized data with high reliability via simple inference.

...evidence seems insufficient to support a belief that Martin Armstrong is an exceptional market forecaster.

...evidence from detailed Chinese stock account data indicates that the trading of unsophisticated individuals tends to transfer their wealth to institutions and more sophisticated individuals (and to brokers and the government).

...evidence does not support a belief that "buying stocks when they begin trading OTC is a profitable strategy."

...evidence suggests that book-to-price ratio and earnings yield explain future stock returns better jointly than individually by more completely anticipating future earnings growth.

We evaluate here the market commentary of Jack Schannep, previously available via Zacks.com (since removed) and currently available via MarketWatch since July 2002. Jack Schannep, editor of The DowTheory.com and author of Dow Theory for...

As requested by a reader, we evaluate here the quarterly market commentary of Stephen Leeb since January 2003 (much of commentary archive removed in occasional site redesigns) with respect to his outlook for U.S. stocks....

A reader suggested that we evaluate the stock market forecasts of Jeremy Grantham, Chairman of GMO LLC. GMO LLC “is a global investment management firm committed to providing sophisticated clients with superior asset management solutions...

In this entry, we update our review of the weekly “Technical Market Insight” of BusinessWeek online by Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist for Standard & Poor’s, since early 2003. The table below quotes forecast highlights from...

...investors may want to consider how their cultural predispositions affect their processing of reported views of experts on financial markets.

...evidence indicates that stock prices react somewhat predictably in direction and magnitude to specific categories of news, but general market conditions may affect the reactions.

...evidence indicates that stamps probably underperform stocks, beat bonds and gold and tie art over the long run, with a return pattern somewhat like that of gold.

...evidence from simple tests on limited samples supports a belief that a strategy employing long-term simple moving average crossing signals to enter and exit equities may outperform a buy-and-hold strategy, depending on market conditions and...

This sample is far too small for a Guru Grades-type review.

Some considerations that might make these results seem less than stunning are...

It is arguable that both momentum investing (trend-following, such as Decision Moose) and value investing (valuation-implied mispricing, such as Magic Formula Investing) are timing approaches at different horizons.

...financial advisors may be able to improve advisee satisfaction by refining the typical approach to risk tolerance measurement and accommodation. The self-advised can apply such refinement to themselves.

...evidence indicates that decomposition of valuation ratios into long-term trends and shorter-term (business cycle) variations may substantially enhance their abilities to predict stock market returns.

...evidence from limited tests suggests that ETF pair trading based on relative returns/volatilities may outperform simple passive benchmarks.

...evidence indicates that short sellers are on average skilled public information processors, successfully discriminating between future underperformers and outperformers, with exploitation concentrated after several categories of news releases.

...evidence indicates that U.S. stock market returns may be significantly predictable during economic and political crises, but not during market bubbles and crashes. Investor misreaction to crises, not economic fundamentals, appear to drive stock return...

...evidence suggests that investors may be able to exploit market volatility derived from forward-looking (implied volatility) measures, especially the persistent diffusion volatility component.