...expert futures traders exhibit some market timing ability, and those who employ trading systems out-time those who do not. Market timing is more important to futures traders than securities selection.
...trading activity in stocks recommended by bloggers indicates that on average the recommendations (especially sells) have some real value and lasting market impact. Blogger credentials appear to matter.
...speculators may be able to exploit the volatility risk premium by selling short-term deep out-of-the-money put options and all maturities of deep out-of-the-money call options on the broad stock market, especially during periods of high...
...investors may be able to exploit the predictive power of the inflation rate and the yield curve to "switch out" of bear markets and thereby beat a buy-and-hold approach.
...short sellers have acted as specialized monitors who tend to know what they are doing, but high levels of and large positive changes in institutional ownership can obscure short interest informativeness.
...dramatic growth in the number of actively managed mutual funds has driven the proportion of truly skilled funds down, without commensurate reduction in average fund fees and expenses.
...this evidence does not support a belief that technical trading rules reliably generate out-of-sample outperformance after accounting for trading frictions.
...limited tests indicate that a strategy based solely on historical price data that seeks to exploit (avoid) periods of likely above-normal (below-normal) price growth has some merit. However, evidence does not support a belief that...
...evidence from simple tests indicates that combining RSI and MACD signals probably does not enhance, but instead may degrade, returns from trading a broad market index.
...a broad index trading strategy based solely on MACD crossovers probably has difficulty keeping up with buy-and-hold over long periods, but MACD crossover signals might be useful within more complex strategies.
...a broad index trading strategy based solely on RSI oversold/overbought signals probably underperforms buy-and-hold over long periods, but RSI signals might be useful within more complex strategies.
...evidence from simple tests does not support a belief that the Between the Hedges net portfolio position anticipates the short-term trend of the broad U.S. stock market.
...the Wall Street Journal's SmartMoney Fund Screen column may have value for picking international and hybrid mutual funds. It is probably not useful for picking domestic equity, sector or fixed income funds, for which strong...
...investors may be able to exploit local bias-induced undervaluation (overvaluation) of stocks headquartered in U.S. states with depressed (exuberant) economies.
...evidence does not support a belief that the "Objective Elliot Wave" method successfully times the broad U.S. stock market. The method appears more to react to past returns than to predict future returns.
...this paper provides a comprehensive and organized overview of past research on equity analyst inputs, processing and outputs.
...in the words of the authors: "The momentum effect, both in the UK and globally, has been pervasive and persistent. Though costly to implement on a standalone basis, all investors need to be acutely aware...
...investors on the whole base their (mis)perceptions of risk and return on feelings rather than rational pricing analysis. Contrarians may be able to exploit the underpricing of "despised" stocks by focusing on small value.
...investors appear to focus on underperforming/losing stocks, cut them more slack and put more money into them.
...investors may want to get a fresh hedge fund horse every two or three years.
...the extraordinary performance claimed by IntelligentValue for the Retracement-Value portfolio is likely due to a combination of early good luck and a favorable assumption about trade prices. Investors/traders considering such active trading services should carefully...
...changing public beliefs in how the economy works (and thereby valuation models) substantially affect long-term interest rates and asset prices. Current beliefs, focused on nominal rather than real interest rates, foster irrational overpricing of assets.
...traders employing frequent trading strategies such as that offered by VRTrader.com must achieve low trading friction and be prepared for frequent losses and high return volatility among individual trades. Specifically for VRTrader.com, they may also...
...past performance is significantly indicative of future performance among bond mutual funds.
...presumably sophisticated hedge fund investors as a group chase past returns and fail to time their investments successfully.