March 30, 2011 Momentum Investing, Value Premium, Volatility Effects
For what kind of stocks does momentum work best? In his March 2011 paper entitled “Growth Options, Idiosyncratic Volatility and Momentum”, Umut Celiker investigates the interactions among valuation (market to-book ratio, arguably a proxy for...
March 29, 2011 Commodity Futures
Are some stocks more sensitive to commodity prices than others? If so, is the variation exploitable? In their February 2011 paper entitled “The Stock Market Price of Commodity Risk”, Martijn Boons, Frans de Roon and...
March 28, 2011 Big Ideas, Buybacks-Secondaries, Fundamental Valuation, Momentum Investing, Size Effect, Value Premium
In their March 2011 paper entitled “The Shrinking Space for Anomalies”, George Jiang and Andrew Zhang investigate the robustness of ten well-known anomalies by iteratively “shrinking the stock space” in two ways to determine whether...
March 25, 2011 Big Ideas
What is a financial market anomaly? How can investors determine whether an apparent anomaly is real (economically material)? In his March 2011 book chapter entitled “Perspectives on Capital Market Anomalies”, Mozaffar Khan provides a framework...
March 25, 2011 Investing Expertise
Are Chief Financial Officers (CFO) better informed than Chief Executive Officers (CEO) when it comes to trading the stocks of their companies? In their March 2011 paper entitled “Are CFOs’ Trades More Informative than CEOs’...
March 21, 2011 Momentum Investing, Size Effect, Value Premium
How do widely recognized stock return anomalies (return variations unexplained by asset pricing models) mesh with efficient portfolio selection theory? In their paper entitled “Investing in Stock Market Anomalies”, Turan Bali, Stephen Brown and Ozgur...
March 18, 2011 Animal Spirits, Individual Investing
What accounts for the persistence in diversity of investor beliefs and behaviors? Why does logical inference from common data not drive common attitudes and actions? In their March 2011 paper entitled “Serotonin and Risk Taking:...
March 16, 2011 Momentum Investing
Does momentum not work for Japanese equities? In his March 2011 paper entitled “Momentum in Japan: The Exception that Proves the Rule”, Clifford Asness examines whether the failure of stock price momentum in Japan materially...
March 15, 2011 Individual Gurus
Guru Accuracy: 60%
We evaluate here the stock market commentary of the Cabot Market Letter, published by Cabot Heritage Corporation and currently edited by Michael Cintolo, via MarketWatch.com since late 2002. The available sample encompasses three editors. The...
March 11, 2011 Strategic Allocation, Volatility Effects
Can diversification via allocations to volatility-related securities enhance the absolute and risk-adjusted returns of equity portfolios? In other words, can investors construct useful asset classes from equity volatility? In their early 2010 paper entitled “Volatility...
March 10, 2011 Animal Spirits
Are there internal or external signals that predict financial market panic attacks? In the February 2011 revision of their paper entitled “Predicting Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic” (flagged by a reader), Dion...
March 9, 2011 Fundamental Valuation, Size Effect, Value Premium
Which firm fundamentals predict associated stocks returns, and which ones do not? In their February 2011 paper entitled “Returns Premia on Company Fundamentals”, Kateryna Shapovalova, Alexander Subbotin and Thierry Chauveau assess the significance, stability and...
March 8, 2011 Size Effect, Value Premium
How and why do the value premium and size effect work? In their February 2011 paper entitled “Value and Size Puzzles: A Commented Survey”, Kateryna Shapovalova and Alexander Subbotin review and assess prior research on...
March 4, 2011 Fundamental Valuation, Investing Expertise
Do online forums of arguably well-informed investors pay off for their members? In their February 2011 paper entitled “Talking Your Book: Social Networks and Price Discovery”, Wesley Gray and Andrew Kern study the sharing of...
March 3, 2011 Strategic Allocation
Has the academic community made practical progress in specifying asset allocation approaches that mitigate adverse impacts of multi-market crises (systemic risk) on diversified portfolios? Two recent papers address this question in complementary top-down and bottom-up...
March 2, 2011 Short Selling
Do highly shorted stocks tend to underperform? If so, is this underperformance exploitable? In the February 2011 draft of their paper entitled “Short Sale Return Predictability Revisited: Anomaly or Return Mis-measurement?”, Zsuzsa Huszár and Wenlan...
March 1, 2011 Fundamental Valuation
What is the state, from an investor’s perspective, of research on the power of accounting and fundamentals to predict stock returns? In their September 2010 paper entitled “Accounting Anomalies and Fundamental Analysis: A Review of...
February 28, 2011 Big Ideas, Bonds
Can Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), with principal indexed to the U.S. non-seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI), play a valuable role in asset class diversification? In the January 2011 draft of...
February 25, 2011 Calendar Effects
In their February 2011 book chapter entitled “Seasonal Anomalies”, Constantine Dzhabarov and William Ziemba describe, update and assess several published U.S. stock market anomalies, most of which are directly or indirectly calendar-driven. They update using...
February 24, 2011 Fundamental Valuation, Mutual/Hedge Funds, Volatility Effects
Is the number of institutional owners of a stock, arguably a proxy for general investor awareness and demand, an important factor in current and future pricing of the stock? In their February 2011 paper entitled...
February 23, 2011 Economic Indicators
Are there reliable lead-lag relationships among stock market returns, changes in the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and changes in Treasury bond yields? In their February 2011 paper entitled “The US Stock Market Leads the Federal...
February 22, 2011 Equity Options
Do options quote movements anticipate those of underlying stocks? In other words, are options traders systematically more informed than stock traders? In their January 2011 paper entitled “Is There Price Discovery in Equity Options?”, Dmitriy...
February 21, 2011 Big Ideas
In his 2010 book Wave Theory for Alternative Investments: Riding the Wave with Hedge Funds, Commodities, and Venture Capital, author Stephen Todd Walker asserts that “dynamic asset allocation (as opposed to static allocation) is imperative…...
February 17, 2011 Equity Premium
How have S&P 500 firms performed over the past two decades, in aggregate and individually, relative to reasonable investor expectations? In their February 2011 brief entitled “Shareholder Value Creators in the S&P 500: 1991-2010”, Pablo...
February 16, 2011 Big Ideas
Is there a window of exploitation before prices of individual stocks incorporate relevant information shocks? If so, what is its duration? In their January 2011 paper entitled “Speed of Convergence to Market Efficiency: The Role...