Investing Research Articles

Readers have proposed several hedging/shorting variations for “Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy Performance”, as follows: (1) buy the top and hedge with (short) the bottom sector based on past six-month return; (2) buy the top sector based on past six-month return and hedge it with a matched short position in the S&P 500 Index via… Keep Reading

Do country stock markets exhibit useful aggregate value and size metrics? In his December 2013 paper entitled “Macro Model for Macro Funds”, Adam Zaremba investigates whether macro size and value factors for country stock markets predict country stock index returns. Specifically, he calculates size and value factors at the country level in each of 66… Keep Reading

Is there a simple compromise between easy-to-implement market weights and more diversified equal sector and equal stock weights? In their December 2013 paper entitled “A Simple Diversified Portfolio Strategy”, Bernd Hanke and Garrett Quigley present a stock portfolio construction approach that blends market weights, equal stock weights and equal sector weights. The objectives of the approach… Keep Reading

Here is this Friday’s installment of Avoiding Investment Strategy Flame-outs, a short book we are previewing for subscribers. Chapter previews will continue for one more Friday. Chapter 8: “Two Analysis Regimes” “This chapter steps through two analysis regimes via examples to illustrate avoidance and mitigation of the issues covered in Chapters 1 through 6. The first example… Keep Reading

Are “quality” country stock markets good places to invest? In his December 2013 paper entitled “Quality Investing and the Cross-Section of Country Returns”, Adam Zaremba investigates whether aggregate financial quality determines country stock market performance. Specifically, he uses two-month lagged 12-month data for listed firms to calculate the following eight quality metrics at the country… Keep Reading

Why does the gross profitability stock-screening strategy work? In their December 2013 paper entitled “Factoring Profitability”, Michael Branch, Lisa Goldberg and Ran Leshem explore the drivers of the gross profitability strategy for U.S. stocks. Specifically, they examine the contributions of factors in the conventional Fama-French-Carhart four-factor (FFC4) model of equity returns and the Barra USE4… Keep Reading

What market conditions make stock price momentum strategies crash? In the October 2013 version of their paper entitled “Momentum Profits, Market Cycles, and Rebounds: Evidence from Germany”, Martin Bohl and Marc-Gregor Czaja analyze performance statistics for both price and earnings momentum portfolios of German stocks across different market states. They use a stock price momentum… Keep Reading

Here is this Friday’s installment of Avoiding Investment Strategy Flame-outs, a short book we are previewing for subscribers. Chapter previews will continue for the next two Fridays. Chapter 7: “Thinking about Taxes” “To the extent that governments tax different kinds of income/investment returns (interest, dividends, long-term capital gains and short-term capital gains) differently, taxes may be decisive… Keep Reading

As of the end of 2012, we stopped adding forecasts to the Guru Grades database and published a preliminary report on findings. As of the end of 2013, we have completed the grading of all forecasts added during 2012 and now publish a final Guru Grades report. The final report encompasses 6,582 graded forecasts from 68… Keep Reading

Are momentum and trend-following strategies effective in tactical asset allocation to European equity sectors and countries? In the July 2013 version of their paper entitled “European Equity Investing Through the Financial Crisis: Can Risk Parity, Momentum or Trend Following Help to Reduce Tail Risk?”, Andrew Clare, James Seaton, Peter Smith and Steve Thomas apply momentum… Keep Reading