Investing Research Articles

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November 2025. The actual total (core) inflation rate is lower than (lower than) forecasted. Because there were no data for October 2025, we used the forecasted numbers for that month.

How sensitive is performance of the “Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy” (SACEMS) to choice of momentum calculation lookback interval, and what interval works best? To investigate, we generate gross compound annual growth rates (CAGR) and maximum drawdowns (MaxDD) for SACEMS Top 1, equally weighted (EW) EW Top 2 and EW Top 3 portfolios over lookback… Keep Reading

Does the Christmas holiday, a time of putative good will toward all, give U.S. stock investors a sense of optimism that translates into stock returns? To investigate, we analyze the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index during five trading days before through five trading days after the holiday. Using daily closing levels of the… Keep Reading

How can typical investors/managers rigorously translate their views on factor/style and sector/theme exposures into a portfolio of exchange-traded funds (ETF). In their November 2025 paper entitled “Implementing Systematic Risk Premia, Factor-Based Strategies, and Sector Rotation with ETFs”, Nino Antulov-Fantulin, Petter Kolm and Mario Šikic describe a methodology for constructing systematic, long-only investment strategies for family… Keep Reading

Does lack of liquidity among stocks in anomaly portfolios effectively block exploitation? In their November 2025 paper entitled “Liquidity Constraints and the Illusion of Anomaly Profitability”, Álvaro Cartea, Mihai Cucuringu, Qi Jin and Jiexiu Zhu assess exploitability of anomaly trading strategies after accounting for individual stock liquidities. They define liquidity of a stock as its… Keep Reading

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 12/8/25 through 12/12/25. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.

Is U.S. equity market valuation outrunning its productive value? For perspective, we compare the trajectories of S&P 500 (SP500) index, earnings and dividends over recent decades and look at some potential explanations for divergences. Using quarterly SP500 data and 10-year U.S. Treasury note (T-note) yield during March 1988 through September 2025 and Shiller data as… Keep Reading

The equity premium is conventionally the return on stocks minus the risk-free rate (for short-term government bills). What should be the risk-free asset for equities, arguably expected to grow in real terms and never to mature? In the November 2025 draft of their paper entitled “Purifying the Equity Premium”, Christopher Polk and Tuomo Vuolteenaho argue… Keep Reading

Is systematically selling cash-covered equity put options, as implemented by exchange-traded funds (ETF), attractive? To investigate, we consider six equity put-write ETFs, three dead and three living: US Equity High Volatility Put Write (HVPW) – oriented toward individual stocks (dead). ALPS Enhanced Put Write Strategy (PUTX) – index-oriented (dead). WisdomTree Equity Premium Income Fund (WTPI) –… Keep Reading

How is the increasing role of interacting algorithms changing financial markets? In his November 2025 paper entitled “Algorithmic Exuberance”, Marc Schmitt presents an Algorithmic Exuberance model, which automatically stimulates market volatility from two coupled feedback channels (see the figure below): Market-algorithmic reflexivity (trading systems learning from one another). Information-algorithmic reflexivity (algorithmic amplification of news, narratives… Keep Reading