Investing Research Articles

A subscriber requested testing Martin Zweig’s Combined Super Model, which each month specifies an equity allocation based on a system that assigns up to eight points from his Monetary Model and 0 or 2 points...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/13/20 through 4/17/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Are equity factors used in leading models of stock returns reliable performers in practice? In his March 2020 paper entitled “Factor Performance 2010-2019: A Lost Decade?”, David Blitz measures performances of factors tracked in the...

Low-risk investment strategies buy or overweight low-risk assets and sell or underweight high-risk assets. Growth in low-risk investing is stimulating much pro and con debate in the financial community. Which assertions are valid, and which...

How can investors account for inflation expectations in estimating attractiveness of equities? In their March 2020 article entitled “The Equity Risk Premium: A Novel Perspective on the Past Fifty Years”, James White and Victor Haghani...

“Verification Tests of the Smart Money Indicator” performs tests of ideas and setup features described in “Smart Money Indicator for Stocks vs. Bonds”. The Smart Money Indicator (SMI) is a complicated variable that exploits differences...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/6/20 through 4/9/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Findings in “Add Stop-gain to Asset Class Momentum Strategy?” suggest that systematic capture of upside volatility may enhance the base strategy. Does this conclusion hold for a simpler application to a single liquid asset over...

What does the U.S. stock market at industry/firm levels say about investor expectations during and after the 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic? In the April 2020 update of their paper entitled “Feverish Stock Price Reactions to...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/30/20 through 4/3/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Do stock anomaly (factor premium) portfolios exhibit exploitable value and momentum? In their February 2020 paper entitled “Value and Momentum in Anomalies”, Deniz Anginer, Sugata Ray, Nejat Seyhun and Luqi Xu investigate exploitability of time...

Economic data arrive too slowly to help investors navigate crises such as the 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Are there data that support quick reactions? In their March 2020 paper entitled “Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/23/20 through 3/27/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Which equity factor model is best among non-U.S. global stock markets? In other words, what market/accounting variables are most important to investors screening non-U.S. stocks? In his February 2020 paper entitled “A Comparison of Global...

Has 24-hour trading of equity index futures created a reliable pattern in hour-by-hour returns? In their February 2020 preliminary paper entitled “The Overnight Drift”, Nina Boyarchenko, Lars Larsen and Paul Whelan study round-the-clock U.S. stock...

Subscribers are posing questions about the 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) as a driver of current market conditions that are difficult to address with evidence-based analyses. Here are some questions and thoughts:

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/16/20 through 3/20/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

When the stock market close is strong (weak) relative to its daily range, does it indicate pent-up buying (selling) demand? Should one trade with or against this relative close? To investigate, we relate position of...

Does success in the U.S. equity market depend on an ever- shrinking percentage of outperforming stocks? In his February 2020 paper entitled “Wealth Creation in the U.S. Public Stock Markets 1926 to 2019”, Hendrik Bessembinder...

Why does the coincident relationship between U.S. aggregate corporate earnings growth and stock market return change from negative in older research to positive in recent research? In their January 2020 paper entitled “Assessing the Structural...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/9/20 through 3/13/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

“Verification Tests of the Smart Money Indicator” reports performance results for a specific version of the Smart Money Indicator (SMI) stocks-bonds timing strategy, which exploits differences in futures and options positions in the S&P 500...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/2/20 through 3/6/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Is the concept of emergent social behaviors useful in investing and trading? In his January 2020 address to the American Finance Association entitled “Social Transmission Bias in Economics and Finance”, David Hirshleifer discusses social economics...

Does the value premium for U.S. stocks, as measured by book-to-market ratio, persist after its initial discovery/publication in 1992? In their January 2020 paper entitled “The Value Premium”, Eugene Fama and Kenneth French assess whether...