Investing Research Articles

Will investors in passive index funds overwhelm the ability of active investors to keep prices near fundamental value? If so, what happens? In their March 2026 paper entitled “A Model for Passive That Breaks the...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/13/26 through 4/17/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

Much prior research indicates that most stock anomalies fail to deliver due to data snooping in their discovery, post-publication market adaptation and, especially, implementation costs. In their March 2026 paper entitled “Reviving Anomalies”, Heiner Beckmeyer,...

Will the relatively high U.S. stock valuation ratios observed over the past few decades revert, or are they persistent artifacts of fundamental shifts in the U.S. economy? In their January 2026 paper entitled “A Macroeconomic...

The possibility that a bond issuer may default drives the credit risk premium, the average difference in return between such a bond and a U.S. Treasury security with matched duration. The possibility that interest rates...

Do forecasts of U.S. deficits and debt portend doom? In their November 2025 paper entitled “Then and Now: A Look Back and Ahead at the Federal Budget”, Alan Auerbach and William Gale estimate future U.S...

How many stocks truly drive U.S. wealth creation? In his March 2026 paper entitled “One Hundred Years in the U.S. Stock Markets”, Hendrik Bessembinder computes investment outcomes for the full lifetime of each publicly listed...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/6/26 through 4/10/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2026. The actual total (core) inflation rate is much higher than (about the same as) forecasted.

...data from the past 41 years indicate little or no contemporaneous relationship between the equity market and the residential real estate market. There may be a weak, inverse, multi-year relationship between home appreciation and stock...

“Using the Money Anxiety Index for ETF Selection” examines whether the proprietary Money Anxiety Index (MAI) can select long and short portfolios of ETFs that beat the S&P 500 Index (ignoring dividends). Test outputs are...

Have retirement target date funds (TDF) from the principal offerors exhibited asset allocation wisdom over the past 20 years? In his February 2026 paper entitled “The Asset Allocation Wisdom of Wall Street”, Harry Mamaysky classifies...

In response to “Bitcoin Trend Predicts U.S. Stock Market Return?”, a subscriber suggested that bitcoin (BTC) price trend/return may be more strongly predictive of NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) returns than of S&P 500 Index returns....

Does Michael Farr, CEO and founder of Farr, Miller & Washington, offer good stock picks via his annual CNBC articles identifying the best 10 stocks for the next year? To investigate, we take his picks...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/30/26 through 4/2/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

What are the different ways of estimating the equity risk premium, and which one is best? In his March 2026 paper entitled “Equity Risk Premiums (ERP): Determinants, Estimation, and Implications – The 2026 Edition”, Aswath...

In response to “Shorting VXX with Crash Protection”, which investigates shorting iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (VXX) to capture the equity volatility risk premium, a subscriber asked about instead using a long position in...

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined...

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for April 2026. SACEMS rankings are unlikely to change by the close. SACEVS...

Subscribers asked whether substituting Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) in the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) improves outcomes. To investigate,...

Does the seasonal shift marked by the Easter holiday, with the U.S. stock market closed on the preceding Good Friday, produce anomalous returns? To investigate, we analyze the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index...

We are making two changes to CXOadvisory.com methodology: The Social Science Research Network (SSRN) is our principal source of research relevant to individual investors. We monitor relevant parts of SSRN to discover such research. However,...

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/23/26 through 3/27/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to...

What is the interplay among exchange-traded fund (ETF) proxies for the U.S. dollar, gold and crude oil? Do changes in the value of the dollar lead or lag those in hard assets? To investigate, we...

“Simple Term Structure ETF/Mutual Fund Momentum Strategy” tests a simple relative momentum strategy on the term structure of U.S. Treasuries using exchange-traded fund (ETF) and mutual fund proxies. Here, we update and extend that analysis...