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Investing Research Articles

3098 Research Articles

The Value Premium Looking Forward

…investors have expected a fairly stable value premium of about 6% per year over the past 60 years, derived mostly from growth in dividends.

A Survey of the Factor Landscape

…there is considerable redundancy and invalidity among the many factors used to explain differences in returns among individual stocks. Three factors may be necessary and sufficient, with liquidity the most influential.

Conservatism Bias in Earnings Forecasts

…investors systematically overvalue (undervalue) stocks when they expect earnings per share to be low (high). Their expectations exhibit conservatism bias with respect to both the downside and upside extremes.

Investors as Social (Relative Wealth) Climbers

…status may be more powerful than wealth as a motivator, with significant implications for investor/trader behavior.

Does Earnings Acceleration Mean Anything for Investors?

…earnings acceleration helps explain stock returns, most notably when it amplifies the direction of earnings growth (both positive or both negative).

A 12-Month Cycle for Stock Returns?

…there is a tendency for stocks worldwide to reprise their monthly return behavior every 12 months, with intracycle reversals, over periods of many years. Results suggest calendar-connected market structures.

The Size Effect in Up and Down Markets

…a small-stock buy-and-hold approach benefits fully from upside volatility (beta) but does not suffer the entire penalty of downside volatility.

Why Gurus Go to Extremes

…forecasters trying to beat other forecasters tend to take extreme public positions that reflect the motivational bias of competition. An investor considering the public forecasts of gurus should probably shift asserted probabilities away from 0% and 100% toward 50%.

Testing Benjamin Graham Out of Sample

…Benjamin Graham-style value investing still works but is more difficult to execute than in the past because severe undervaluation has become rarer.

Shark Attacks?

…it appears that some short selling is manipulative, seeking to scare other traders out of their holdings during sharp but temporary engineered price drops.