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The Trading Wire at ChangeWave

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the Trading Wire archives at Tobin Smith’s ChangeWave, which extend back to November 2004. Tobin Smith, according to ChangeWave.com, is “among an esteemed new breed of investment advisors, with a fresh profit strategy for the post 2000-2002 bear-market investing world. He’s an energetic straight shooter with a… Keep Reading

Do Good Employers Make Good Investments?

…the (Fortune magazine) best places to work make on average good long-term investments.

Testing the Value Premium Down Under

…there is a highly significant value premium among Australian stocks, and the book-to-market ratio is the best way to capture that premium. A size effect exists only among the very smallest stocks.

Left Versus Right Down Under

…investors should perhaps lean toward stocks (real estate) when the electorate leans to the right (left).

Technical Analysis: “Anathema to the Academic World”?

…there is no evidence of any systematic intraday inefficiencies in SPDR data.

Liquid Beats Illiquid for Portfolio Growth?

…the most liquid stocks on average outperform, and this liquidity effect may be central to the value premium.

Low Risk and High Return?

…investors overpay for volatile stocks over the long haul, most dramatically during bear markets.

Testing the Head-and-Shoulders Pattern

Does the head-and-shoulders stock price pattern embody investor attitudes that traders can exploit to earn abnormal returns? Or, does it represent an opportunity for the statistics-challenged to be fooled by randomness? In their October 2006 paper entitled “The Predictive Power of ‘Head-and-Shoulders’ Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market”, Gene Savin, Paul Weller and Janis… Keep Reading

Candlesticks? Fiddlesticks!

…neither bullish nor bearish candlestick signals reliably generate abnormal returns in the expected direction for large-capitalization U.S. stocks during recent years.

How Finance Professors Invest

…finance professors are mostly passive investors, but even those trying to beat the market clearly prefer popular investing indicators over formal (“academic”) valuation and asset pricing models.