Investing Research Articles

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit industrial metal prices as a leading indicator of stock market returns by recognizing that the relationship is positive (negative) for bad (good) economic conditions.

…evidence from simple tests of a publicly available set of “confirmed” Hindenburg Omens suggests the possibility of usefulness, but reservations regarding small sample size and potential sample bias are strong.

…evidence indicates that hedge fund investors should focus on funds with the best past performances and the most distinctive (uncorrelated) strategies.

…findings suggest that momentum, whether based on past returns or moving averages, exists to some degree for currencies. The studies appear not to address combining past returns and moving averages to predict currency market returns.

…evidence indicates that large (diversified) hedge fund investors may be able to exploit multiple predictive factors by averaging their predictive powers to enhance returns derived from selecting recent past winners.

…evidence from simple tests suggest that junk bond mutual funds exhibit return momentum perhaps exploitable via a multi-asset class allocation strategy (but not a standalone timing strategy).

Two charts added to “Market Models”, a backtest of the 6-month forecasts and a current valuation map, offer context for the projections from the Reversion-to-Value (RTV) Model and the Real Earnings Yield (REY) Model of the U.S. stock market.

…evidence from German stocks supports belief in the pervasiveness of a momentum effect and perhaps a value premium, but not market beta and size effects. Any sentiment effect is likely weak, specific to susceptible stocks and concentrated in intervals after very low sentiment.

…evidence from simple tests does not support application of the counter trend trade to the broad U.S. stock market.

…evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit momentum in U.S. corporate bond returns by focusing on past winners among low-grade issues.