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3074 Research Articles

Automating the “Hedge” in Hedge Funds

…synthetic hedge funds constructed statistically as mechanical trading strategies offer transparent, liquid, scalable, low-cost alternatives to actively managed hedge funds.

Stock Valuation Indicator Fly-off

…over the last 80 years, a few price-normalized variables (price-dividend, price-earnings, price-output and price-consumption ratios) and the approximate consumption-aggregate wealth ratio have been the best stock market indicators.

How Investors Do (or Don’t) Take Advice

…the difficulty of successful investing/trading probably makes many investors/traders underestimate their own knowledge/abilities and overestimate the knowledge/abilities of advisors.

The Political Campaign Contribution Effect

…investors might want lean toward companies that contribute to lots of political candidates (especially Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives).

Classic Papers: Returns from Pattern-Based Technical Analysis?

Are trades based on complex technical patterns, such as head-and-shoulders, rational speculations or noise? In other words, do such patterns reliably indicate opportunities to capture excess returns? In her July 1998 paper entitled “Identifying Noise Traders: The Head-And-Shoulders Pattern in U.S. Equities”, Carol Osler investigates whether head-and-shoulders trading is significant and whether it is profitable…. Keep Reading

Trade Against Overnight Moves?

…the overnight return on individual stocks is a contrary indicator for next-day returns, but individual “outside” traders may not be able to exploit this tendency.

Classic Paper: Any Excess Returns from Investment Newsletters?

…newsletters on average offer investors/traders average performance, without the broad diversification benefit of mutual funds.

Combining Value Indicators with Stock Repurchasing

…an exchange traded fund that focuses on value stocks with repurchase activity would be an attractive long-term investment vehicle.

Reclama from Jack Schannep

Jack Schannep, editor of The DowTheory.com, has several times requested that we reconsider parts of our assessment of his specific stock market forecasts, as follows:

Emergent Size-Value Patterns of Noise?

…the value premium and the size effect are real manifestations of emergent patterns of noise across large groups of stocks.