Investing Research Articles

Results suggest that the TOTM return is roughly zero in falling markets, so it can still support options selling (but with no safety margin for at-the-money options). Based on this result, selling options only when above the 200-day SMA would likely reduce risk but result in long intervals of inactivity.

…the authors do not demonstrate any economic value of their forecasts for investors (and imply that there may be none).

…evidence from simple tests on a limited dataset do not support a belief that net money flow is usefully predictive of weekly or monthly stock market returns.

Research showing that equity investors in aggregate materially underperform the market via timing of purchases and sales (aggregated money flow) is extensive. See…

…evidence indicates that traders can reliably earn a material premium by providing liquidity for after-hours trading of U.S. stocks and closing these trades at the next market open, so long as the after-hours trading in the stocks is not abnormally active.

“Results appear to indicate that firm executives are not especially good timers of the aggregate stock market.”

The rationale is recognition of a short-term reaction for stocks with momentum concentrated in a recent interval.

The valuation-based method described in “Modeling the Logic of Valuation-motivated Short Sellers” is a candidate…

…The Dark Side of Valuation presents quantitative approaches to modeling the worth of companies for which valuation is especially complex and/or judgmental.

…the beliefs that appear to motivate the approach described on the web site have support from research.